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You Can’t Fix Stupid (Politicians)
This week’s U.S. Treasury’s sale of $54 billion in 10-year Treasury notes at a yield of 4.18% marks a notable shift in both the cost and scale of federal borrowing. The auction not only refinances $25 billion of maturing 10-year notes issued a decade ago at 1.73%, but also increases the total amount of 10-year debt outstanding by $29 billion. This dual effect - higher rates and larger supply - captures the evolving fiscal and monetary backdrop facing the United States.
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Is Now a Good Time to Diversify Away From U.S. Markets?
The case for emerging market (EM) right now - relative to U.S. equities - rests on valuation asymmetry, macro regime shifts, earnings breadth, and portfolio diversification. While U.S. markets have delivered exceptional returns over the past decade, the forward-looking setup increasingly favors selective EM exposure.
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Is the Stock Market Overvalued?
A reader recently sent me a note asking about the comments from the research team at a major investment house claiming the stock market is “fairly valued.” He wanted to know my thoughts, as an economist, about the subject of whether the stock market is in bubble territory. Rest assured, the answer to the question is quite simple…
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Have the Wheels come off CarMax?
CarMax faces mounting pressure as weak demand, credit stress, and high leverage weigh on the business.
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PayPal – A Value Stock or Value Trap
On February 3, 2026, PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) experienced a significant drop in its share price, falling roughly 20 %, after the company simultaneously announced the ouster of its CEO and reported weaker-than-expected financial results, shaking investor confidence in the fintech giant’s near-term prospects.
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Should Investors be Buying Precious Metals?
The decision to own precious metals in today’s market rests on a simple premise: the global financial system is entering a period where traditional assets face asymmetric risk, and gold and silver offer protection that few alternatives can match.
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Bitcoin as a Hedge Against a Falling Dollar
Bitcoin is often described as “digital gold,” yet its behavior during periods of economic crisis has frequently resembled that of a risk asset rather than a traditional safe haven like gold.
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Japanese Bonds Explode Higher
Japan’s bond sell-off is weakening a key pillar of U.S. Treasuries, pushing yields higher and increasing global rate volatility.
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A Primer on Debt
Refinancing old debt at much higher rates is exposing the structural fragility of today’s U.S. fiscal system.
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