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Choppiness in U.S. Markets: Understanding the Volatility Landscape
U.S. markets face heightened volatility amid economic uncertainty, Fed signals, and global tensions, leading to sharp intraday swings and investor caution.
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Do Widening Treasury and Mortgage Rates Portend Bad Times Ahead?
The unusually wide gap between mortgage rates and 10-year Treasury yields signals deeper market stress, raising concerns about housing affordability and the broader economic outlook.
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Another Big Short?
Michael Burry, known for predicting the 2008 crash, is betting against Nvidia through put options, believing its stock is overvalued amid the AI boom. While Nvidia continues strong growth, Burry sees signs of a bubble. His move reflects another bold contrarian bet with uncertain results.
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A Primer on Investing Bots
We are getting lots of questions about automated investing using trading bots. So we’re providing a brief primer on trading bots.
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Is Treasury Demand Drying Up?
Weak demand for US Treasury securities, as seen in recent auctions, signals rising concerns about the US government's ability to manage its debt and the potential for higher borrowing costs. This can lead to increased interest rates, financial market instability, and broader economic uncertainty.
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Reading Between the Lines
Last week’s release of the March 2025 Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index revealed a nuanced inflation landscape, marked by significant revisions to prior data and emerging concerns about economic stagnation.
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Should Jerome Powell Lower Rates?
As we officially start the second quarter of 2025, the yield on the 2-year U.S. Treasury note has dipped below the federal funds rate, a signal that financial markets are anticipating a shift in monetary policy direction. This inversion—where short-term Treasury yields fall beneath the Fed’s benchmark rate—typically reflects investor expectations that interest rates will decline in the near to medium term, often in response to slowing economic momentum or subsiding inflation pressures.
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Understanding the VIX: The Market’s Fear Gauge
The VIX, or Volatility Index, is a widely watched measure of stock market volatility, often referred to as the market’s “fear gauge.” Created by the Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE) in 1993, the VIX reflects market expectations of near-term volatility conveyed by S&P 500 index options. In simpler terms, it gives investors a sense of how much the stock market is expected to swing over the next 30 days.
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Today’s Rally Fizzled
The U.S. stock markets staged an early rally, buoyed by President Donald Trump's softened rhetoric on Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell and a more conciliatory approach toward China tariffs.
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