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What is the 10-Year Bond Telling Us?
Recent swings in the U.S. 10-year Treasury yield reflect shifting investor sentiment around geopolitical risk, inflation expectations, and future Fed policy.
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Fantastic Quarterly Results and the Stock Falls
On Feb. 25, 2026, Nvidia reported its fourth quarter and fiscal 2026 earnings, posting record revenue and earnings that easily surpassed Wall Street expectations — yet its stock declined sharply the following trading day. Despite an otherwise blockbuster report, investor reaction was muted, leaving markets debating whether this represents caution or a deeper shift in sentiment.
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Trump’s New Tariff Stress
New Trump tariffs are reviving market volatility, pressuring equities, influencing bonds and currencies, and raising uncertainty around global growth.
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You Can’t Fix Stupid (Politicians)
This week’s U.S. Treasury’s sale of $54 billion in 10-year Treasury notes at a yield of 4.18% marks a notable shift in both the cost and scale of federal borrowing. The auction not only refinances $25 billion of maturing 10-year notes issued a decade ago at 1.73%, but also increases the total amount of 10-year debt outstanding by $29 billion. This dual effect - higher rates and larger supply - captures the evolving fiscal and monetary backdrop facing the United States.
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Is Now a Good Time to Diversify Away From U.S. Markets?
The case for emerging market (EM) right now - relative to U.S. equities - rests on valuation asymmetry, macro regime shifts, earnings breadth, and portfolio diversification. While U.S. markets have delivered exceptional returns over the past decade, the forward-looking setup increasingly favors selective EM exposure.
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Is the Stock Market Overvalued?
A reader recently sent me a note asking about the comments from the research team at a major investment house claiming the stock market is “fairly valued.” He wanted to know my thoughts, as an economist, about the subject of whether the stock market is in bubble territory. Rest assured, the answer to the question is quite simple…
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Have the Wheels come off CarMax?
CarMax faces mounting pressure as weak demand, credit stress, and high leverage weigh on the business.
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PayPal – A Value Stock or Value Trap
On February 3, 2026, PayPal Holdings (NASDAQ: PYPL) experienced a significant drop in its share price, falling roughly 20 %, after the company simultaneously announced the ouster of its CEO and reported weaker-than-expected financial results, shaking investor confidence in the fintech giant’s near-term prospects.
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Should Investors be Buying Precious Metals?
The decision to own precious metals in today’s market rests on a simple premise: the global financial system is entering a period where traditional assets face asymmetric risk, and gold and silver offer protection that few alternatives can match.
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